Is your bracket ready?
Okay. The NCAA men’s basketball tournament starts in one day, March Madness is here and you haven’t got your bracket ready yet. Is it time to panic? Yes. But that’s okay, because really it doesn’t matter if you put one minute or one day trying to figure out who is going to win the NCAA Tournament, you have just about as good as as a shot at winning your office pool.
Here’s some handy tips I can offer.
To start with the obvious: Go ahead and move all the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds into the third round. Moving them to the second round is a given, being that only four times since 1985 has a No. 2 seed been upset in the opening round, and it’s never happened to a top-seed. The top seeds have only lost 12 times in round two and the No. 2 seeds are 60-32. Sure, that 60-32 record isn’t impressive, and it’s very likely one of the No. 2 seeds gets upset in the second round. But the question is who? Even if you have one losing, do you have the right team beating them.
Looking at this year’s No 2 seeds: Michigan State, Duke, Oklahoma and Memphis, there are some good possibilities. Duke, however should be given a pass, they are totally solid. Memphis probably should be a No. 1 seed, with only three losses and a perfect CUSA record. Oklahoma relies heavily on Blake Griffin, and is the type of team that can play with anyone and Michigan State simply doesn’t have the toughest teams to play early.
In addition if you believe in historic connections, the last two times Kansas won the National Championship, the next year it was won by a Big Ten school. Kansas won last year and Michigan State is the top Big Ten school.
Anyway, study but don’t spend too much time on an 8 vs. 9 matchup. Again, it’s likely the lose to the top seed the next round anyway and these teams are so evenly matched. I tend to just pick all 9 seeds. History is on my side here. Since 85, the No. 9 seed has won 52 of the 96 first round match ups.
A lot of people get caught up in the 5 vs. 12 match ups, because historically a 12 seed wins one of these matchups almost every year, and no No. 5 seed has ever won the national championship. A good portion of the time, the No. 12 seeds that do win, win a second game as well. But don’t go much further than that.
If you want to find the 12 seed this year, rule out N Iowa. While the Purdue-N Iowa looks like a pretty even matchup on paper, one key is that Purdue has won 10 consecutive first-round games…the longest active streak in the tournament. I’d also rule out Wisconsin upsetting Florida State. Neither one of these teams will go far in the tournament, but Wisconsin is the type of team Florida matches up well against…no real scoring threat and a defense vs. defense mentality.
That leave Western Kentucky and Arizona as the possible 12 seed upsets. Arizona is a 3-point machine, and that means streaky, as shown by their season record. They’ve won against some solid oppoenents, yet struggled to even make the dance. Utah has a solid inside game, and is a good underrated team. They are playing good ball right now. The Utes will get the majority of the rebounds, so if Arizona’s 3-shooting is off, no upset is to be made. That leaves Western Kentucky, who I like to go two rounds deep. The Hilltoppers have a better record than Illinois, and is facing an Illinois team that has a 5 seed based more on reputation and conference than actual court performance. Don’t get me wrong, the Illini are a decent team, but they are the onces to pencil in for a loss here.
I also don’t spend too much time on 7 vs. 10 matchups, as the 7s are going to win about 62 percent of the time, but still, the winner won’t advance much further. I like all the 7 seeds in this tournament.
Also, the 3 seeds will win their opener about 80 percent of the time, so advance them at least a round.
Beyond that, a lot of the tournament is a crap shoot. This year, no one wanted to stay at No. 1, and in the tournament, it may also be a matter of who is hot.
To be safe, if you look at the seeds, and struggle with any pick, always go with the favorite (except in the 8 vs. 9). Also not that BYU and Missouri are the two teams with the most tournament appearances without a Final Four, so if you have them making the Final Four, reconsider.
Here’s my final 8:
Michigan State over Louisville
Connecticut over Missouri
Pittsburgh over Duke (I don’t like Duke to make it this far, but I can’t see them losing to any team prior. If they lose to Texas then I like Villanova to beat Texas)
North Carolina over Arizona State
UConn and North Carolina advance with North Carolina winning the title.
Good luck and let us know if you have any bracket advice, and let us know how your bracket turns out.
